Predictions 2011

That time again. Blimey.

We've done some on the agency blog, so there might be a bit of overlap. And a bit of an embarrassing photo too.

Branded Generosity – pour colour and fun into the environment. I thought that campaigns might become more austere (unpimped) in response to the downturn, but what consumers want is brands to lighten their days. If we have to endure advertising, it might as well be jolly.

Branded Usefulness – consumers are fed up doing the hard work for brands. Brands have to start doing something to give back, to do things that help their customers. Not dumb stunts like Charmin loos but things with lasting value and utility in our daily lives

Social TV – this is the year of social TV going mainstream. Kudos to the beeb, but this year it will become a mainstream communication platform.

Three-screen campaigns – branded content in the cloud, that follows you from TV to PC to Mobile

Multi-layered tech – (digital) campaigns that start to realise the potential of new technologies by layering them together. And then have them overlaid on physical experience to make them useful. Think geo-locational + social + promotional + retail …

The death of the digital agency. The digital agencies are quickly becoming commodity suppliers. Digital agencies *still* think tech-first not ideas. They think they are creatively sharp but there’s been almost no innovation or outstanding creative for 18 months + (and client’s are voting with their budgets). Old fashioned ad agencies are cracking the digital code, allied to strong strategic thinking.

Making stuff / the planningness of things– from making apps to making new products. Agencies getting involved in the creation of new businesses, and new IP. Lower cost of distribution and easier access to the market. The Anomaly / Erasmus / Coudal differentiation becomes less pronounced as other agencies chime in (starting with apps). Corollary – planners engaging with objects and production rather than briefs and concepts

The end of the herd – we might still make herd-like decisions (animalistic & tribal behaviour / behavioural economics) but at a subconscious level. Perhaps the conscious decision-making self will start to reject the mass. Don’t buy an iphone 4 just because everyone else has one – buy a John’s Phone. Join Path (the anti-social network) not Facebook.  Micro-niche goes mainstream.

Must. Resist. The. Gameification. Of. Everything. - Points mean prizes. Promo marketing campaigns turn into games. The curse & legacy of foursquare is badges for everything. Consumer behaviour is trivialised to the point where we feel happy for ‘winning’ clubcard points rather than earning them. God help us. Just say no. Or do more meaningful games.

Intention becomes the leading innovation factor in app development in 2011. It's not just 'where' you are, but what you're 'intending' to do there. This prediction refers to the fact that smartphones are becoming increasingly aware of not just your location, but also why you are there, who you are with, where you are going and how you are feeling. There is a huge opportunity in planning for ‘intention’ as well - there is so much data out there to be made sense of for our benefit. 

Fingerprinting is about shoppers leave their mark. Retailers will invite audiences into their shops and give them opportunities to contribute to the atmosphere of their surroundings. Whether it be tangible or virtual, momentary o. r lasting. (Graffiti on walls, framed photos, music play lists, any other user-generated content creation)The shopper becomes a part of the store, part of the experience they share with others, part of the brand story.

There we go. What do you think?

Generative Advertising

Listening to an old-ish talk by Will Wright (Spore) and Brian Eno on generative systems - and their use for gaming and music - struck a chord (no pun intended there).

Eno describes the role of the artist to generate seeds - and rules for their growth - rather than perceiving and  composing great forests of work from the outset.

A lot of global advertising is formed from toolkits of assets. Assets are like seeds. Little building blocks of campaigns that local marketers can draw upon to put their campaigns together.

Similarly, a lot of social media campaigns are basically little bits of content being released into a system. We even talk about seeding.

The problem is that social media systems tend to be largely beyond the control of the marketer or agency. Pesky people in the real world tend to do their own thing with our little seeds.

Which is not what tends to happen with music or gaming - there are generative systems which are quite tightly controlled by the artist.

The second problem is that marketing toolkits and traditional rigid campaign design aren't generative systems. They are OK at distributing seeds but not very good at helping them grow and turn into something interesting.

So I think an emerging role for agencies (and I guess planners, from my own perspective) will be to design more controlled generative systems in the real world, to propagate their little creative seeds.

That's different from helping shape the growth of platforms organically (Russell Davies' old gardening analogy), because it requires more intent at the outset, and the creation of tight simple few rules that can govern the passage and evolution of our work in the real world.

Foreign Correspondents wanted

I'm looking at creating a network of planners or planning-like people around the world. I want to make this thing to be inherently interesting, like having a (media) story attached to it. If you think you might be interested in being part of it, please ping me. Cheers

Unimaginative Inc

At a Campaign lunch recently, the great and the good (or at least those who paid for the privilege of being there) planners from a selection of agencies met to discuss the subject and future of Integration.

Probably a timely discussion as maybe five years ago, integration was a synonym for a DM agency aspiring to make the odd TV ad. These days, it seems there is a plethora of media agnostic / channel neutral / integrated agencies around every corner of Noho or Clerkenwell. And most of them are pretty good.

The thing that struck me though was the utter and slightly terrifying lack of imagination of almost every person present. Which wouldn't be too bad if they weren't so smug about it.

The network dudes seemed to have this eureka moment that in order to respond to the new world (of social media etc) integration means removing P&L's so they could give the client one bottom line and use different companies within the group. Which is fine except this was happening 20 years ago, and I can't believe they haven't figured it out yet (or maybe it's just a new generation figuring out for themselves). And it's fine except the different companies will still compete internally for a lion's share of the pie. Call me cynical, but it's true.

Even digital agencies seem to think that integration means doing the odd press ad now and then. That's an echo of the DM agency plea from five years back. And a signifier that they're ultimately doomed unless they can get get up the food chains (and out of a low cost supplier role) very quickly.

I could count on two fingers the agencies that had something fresh to say, albeit quietly and with some puzzled looks from around the table.

Why do we need a chief gaming officer or a head of entertainment? Because that's the sort of stuff we do. And we also don't need these people on payroll, or even in the building. Integration means building "cabals" of great talent, the people we need to deliver something interesting. We don't have to worry about removing P&L's because we only have one. We don't have to worry about the size of our slice of pie because if we get each thing right, there will be more pies than we can eat.

That's the new world.

New Motion Creative

Hadn’t thought about this before, but one by-product of the iPad is a new creative genre – the motion magazine cover.

It seems to be a hybrid between static print and the motion picture.

I wonder if there’ll be an advertising knock-on or equivalent. If you’re reading the NYT on an iPad, then the advertising doesn’t have to be static, or a repurposed banner.

This format affords a somewhat bigger, broader and more filmic canvas than your typical MPU or whatever, and requires narrative / scriptwriting skills to deliver (and maybe a deeper consumer experience).

Predictions for 2010

Here they are again! Predictions, or at least some underlying trends, for planning, brands, and campaigns generally. This is also being posted on the Inferno blog SPARK, with email links if you want to know more (or see a presentation).

1. Inner prosperity. Brands promise self fulfilment and development, rather than the promise of ownership or consumption.

2. Open. In the value economy it makes sense for companies to cut overheads in R&D by opening up to more expert and customer input.

3. Silver-lining marketing. Brands need to find hidden benefits or indulgences. Thrifty customers can liberally maintain some of their indulgences without sacrificing the necessities.

4. Everything in Beta. We’ve been doing a lot of WoM marketing in 2009. With increased transparency and consumer scrutiny post-recession brands must accept and act upon consumer feedback and input. Those who build this into their business model will be repaid through customer loyalty and positive WoM.

5. Real-time campaigns. Major events in 2010 will see opportunities for brands to act as media providers through real-time, multi-platform, cross-channel campaigns. Mmmm.

6. The Mob (Rule). RATM and China’s ‘internet mob’ are the tip of the iceberg for brands. Time to take note, if you’re organising your own online communities of interest.

7. UGC(rap). UGC is now the majority of content online. And most of it is frankly rubbish. Brands need to step up and stand for quality content, not simply sponsor the cheap stuff.

8. Retail as Community. This one’s about communities moving from a purely online existence to a physical manifestation on the high street. And this will have a big impact on what brands define as retail.

9. Community Patriotism. Patriotism is becoming even more and more micro-focused. “Patriotic consumption” is the term coined for purchasing to support your community, and can be seen in the increased prevalence and support for Farmer's Markets, locally produced goods and the high street (the Brixton Pound).

10. Zombies! Popular culture is awash with zombies, monsters and vampires. From True Blood to Sense and Sensibility and Sea Monsters. Given that many agencies’ modus operandi seems to be to rip off YouTube memes or pop culture, where are all the ads then?