The latest in an annual series of predictions about planning, advertising and the use of technology for the year ahead. I've been running at about an 80% hit rate over the last 2 or 3 years, but given today's economy, I have no idea really what to expect for 2009. I am also, somewhat lazily, reprising some thoughts from earlier presentations as I think there are still some valid trends I touched on before (maybe they were just a bit early or unformed).
I also wanted to see if there was any sort of thread through this years' predictions, and I think it's about Innovation. This will be a year when innovative ways of thinking will be required across the advertising and marketing community in order to survive and position ourselves to come out of the recession as better businesses.
Still, we'll see. And let me know what you think?
1. Ads go the way of consumer choice in a recession
I mean by this that in times of recession, consumption of mid-market / mid-price products often gives way to price-fighter brands or luxury goods (people are quite reticent to give up their luxuries). I can see Branded Content producers pushing into the advertising mainstream through their ability to create a cheap-chic ('unpimped' I called it last year) product by approaching the production more from a programme-maker's cost perspective. It's the end of the pricey yet mediocre TV ad. The corollary will be more 'luxury' or premium films (presumably for premium brands) as brand owners seek to stand out on screen.
2. Agencies finally 'get' brand storytelling
Sure we've been going on for ages about brand stories, but most agencies (creative departments) are I think still pretty uninterested in building and maintaining a story over a period of time (or maybe it's the often high churn rate among marketers that's to blame?). As a result of working more with branded content producers, I can see that agencies (planners?) will get good at narrative, story arcs, and brand & character development. I would like to know more about how the movie or TV industry researches narrative ideas too.
3. Narratives will be told over mobile
An extension of prediction 2, combined with apps being a better medium for brands than ads on mobile devices (everyware), and the growth of mobile apps - and especially locational technology - to access physical experience (e.g. geo-caching or Loopt) is that we'll see a lot of these brand narratives playing out over mobile phones. Campaigns will aim to develop ongoing rich brand experiences integrating digital and physical aspects. Or maybe we'll see 'virtual' brands - that exist in these devices and mediate brand experiences on the go (Virtual Playstation anyone?)
4. Technology enables a 'new analogue'
I don't have one, but I think devices like the Polaroid PoGo, or Microsoft Research's Lifeclock concept, are terrific. They reapply technology to an analogue concept to make devices - or experiences - more human and accessible. Maybe agencies and marketers need to embrace these devices as a new medium for the 'mobile narrative', or just to deliver new forms of branded content.
5. Small, meaningless distractions
I believe that www.icanhascheezburger.com was largely founded on the idea of small, meaningless, playful interactions leading to more involved (and revenue-generating) brand experiences in time. The best-selling computer games are now designed to be playable in 10 - 20 hours (not 100 hours like they were just 2 or 3 years back). Twitter is taking over from blogging (less onerous). Add these together with the fact that there's a decline in Click-Through rates, and emerging new metrics (like in-banner interaction rates) for online advertising, and I can see brands deliberately trying to provide small, playful, distractions in the banner (or whatever) itself and not trying to lead people elsewhere or sell them anything. The key to success for these interactions will be their seeming pointlessness and amusement value. So, how many agencies have game-designers in house?
6. Connected brand experiences across the web
Another projection from no 5 combined with no 2: make these little distractions highly connected across the web. Those connections could either be within the user's online environment, or linking multiple users together via informal, temporary social networks. I liked the Orange Balloon Race, and the potential of apps like PMOG - which allow the user a playful (branded) experience to accompany them across the web, to interact with their content, and their context.
7. Tagging the real world
We're used to tagging everything we put on the web, and I think marketers and agencies are going to look at how we can tag the real world better, and create little, useful brand encounters. Maybe it is going to be more use for shot (QR) codes - I planned a campaign for an airline earlier in the year which proposed travellers creating and posting shot codes at destinations - or it might be the use of RFID/scannable tags (like Tikitags) that form the basis of this. Of course, we'll all need scanners, so mobile phone-based technology will probably prevail.
8. NBDB
This is a thought about experimentation. In the days when innovation is a priority to stay interesting, and when we're trying to build stronger brand relationships, marketers are going to need to try things that have never been done before. Or, at very least, are difficult to quantify. Penguin have led the way in trying out all sorts of new digital marketing - I don't know what the ROI is, but it certainly deepens people's affection for the brand
9. A new metric for the engagement economy
One of the outcomes of all this narrative and mobile activity will be the requirement for a different kind of metric - and model - for success. Starting with the model, then, the traditional consideration-purchase funnel seems somewhat outmoded or simplistic (or at least it's fashionable to think so). I'll certainly be working on a proprietary model for the agency in 2009. And one of the big areas of focus will be to reduce the emphasis on ROI where possible. Unless the agency is selling off the creative (eg eCRM) it's tough to be directly accountable for the sales return (and I did econometrics) - but we should be accountable for some new measure of engagement-cum-consideration (brand love perhaps?). Joseph Jaffe says we'll need new metrics to guide, direct and validate new commitment-based marketing, and Andy Sernovitz says that "Companies that focus on earning love will thrive during hard times, and kick ass when good times return." (thanks Darmano).
10. Hope
A bit of an odd one this. We're all going to need a bit of hope to get through the next year or two. Regardless of the expectations he's set up for himself, the Obama campaign was built on hope and their ability to deliver it. I think we'll see more higher-order claims by leadership brands (or successful challengers). And that they might be perceived as a bit cheesey or American won't matter because people will want to believe in it, and they'll want the brands they love to help them come through these times.
So, that's the ten top tips for 2009. I have a powerpoint version of this - with added picturely goodness - which I'll be touting round clients shortly. As usual, I'll do an update half-way through the year too, to see how things are going.
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